Uncertainty paralyses the zero emission transition: 74 percent of fleet operators fear the true costs of electric trucks

Few changes are as disruptive to transport operations as the transition to zero emission. Companies feel increasing pressure to act, while at the same time searching for certainty in a transition that has become more complex than ever. Where do we start? What does this mean for our planning? And can we justify this step financially?

You are not alone in facing these questions. Our survey among more than fifty fleet operators shows that 88 percent are concerned about range, 87 percent question the reliability of charging infrastructure, 80 percent are uncertain about the availability of fast chargers, and 74 percent struggle with the affordability of purchasing and operating electric trucks. In addition, half of the respondents identify the combination of charging, vehicles and daily operations as the single biggest challenge.

The situation is therefore clear. The transition is approaching rapidly, but clarity is lacking. Why is this uncertainty so persistent, and how can you still create a safe and realistic starting point?

Why the transition stalls: too much uncertainty and too little direction

The reason many companies do not yet start the zero emission transition is not unwillingness, but the absence of a clear point of departure. The transition affects multiple areas at once, including planning, drivers, infrastructure, costs and energy. As a result, uncertainties accumulate without it being clear which issues should be addressed first. Half of the respondents in our survey indicate that this very combination of factors represents the greatest challenge.

This makes decision making difficult. Different roles focus on different risks. Executive management looks for financial certainty, planners need operational stability, and drivers require predictability and comfort. Without a single, coherent view of what is and is not feasible within their own operation, decisions are postponed and the transition feels larger and riskier than it needs to be.

This is also reflected in a comment from an operations manager who participated in the survey:

“An aspect that is often overlooked in long haul transport is how to prevent drivers from facing long charging times. In a sector with driver shortages, any zero emission solution must address this to be a realistic alternative.”

Concrete data creates a realistic starting point

The turning point comes when companies gain insight into factors such as driving distances, idle time, energy consumption and vehicle replacement cycles. At that moment, it becomes clear which parts of the fleet are suitable to start with and which are not.

This makes the transition tangible. Instead of abstract discussions about electric driving, clarity emerges around which routes are already feasible today, where charging fits logically into the planning, and which investments make sense in the short term. Decisions are then based on factual data from the company’s own operation rather than assumptions or industry averages.

As a result, discussions shift from whether something is possible to how and where it is possible to start safely. The transition changes from a paralysing question into a manageable process with a clear point of departure.

A six step approach to make the zero emission transition manageable

The move to zero emission rarely succeeds by defining one comprehensive master plan upfront. In practice, companies that start successfully follow a phased approach that brings structure to uncertainty. This is also how we work at Sycada. Based on what we see across the sector and apply in our own approach, companies typically follow the same six steps to make the transition manageable and to establish a realistic starting point.

1. Start with insight into your current operation

Map route profiles, idle time and vehicle replacement cycles. In almost every fleet, there are routes that can be electrified immediately. These low risk routes provide a safe starting point for the rest of the transition. It is no coincidence that many respondents indicated that a lack of visibility into range and deployability is a major source of uncertainty.

2. Develop a charging strategy before purchasing vehicles

Uncertainty around charging infrastructure and the availability of fast chargers featured prominently in the survey. Assess what your depot can support, which charging capacities are required, and how charging moments align with rest periods. A well thought out charging strategy prevents operational bottlenecks from only becoming visible once vehicles are already in service.

3. Start small, but think about scaling from day one

The first electric vehicles often fit into existing planning with relative ease. The challenge arises when electric vehicles become a structural part of the fleet. By identifying early where complexity will increase, such as in planning, the mix of diesel and electric vehicles, or energy demand, you can work towards scalability in a deliberate way.

4. Automate where complexity increases

As electrification progresses, multiple variables come into play simultaneously, including battery status, charging strategy, weather impact, route energy profiles and planning constraints. Manual planning quickly becomes unsustainable. Predictive energy models and automated planning are essential to keep operations reliable and future ready.

5. Take a holistic view of the business case

Affordability emerged clearly in the survey as a concern for 74 percent of fleet operators. A realistic financial assessment therefore goes beyond purchase costs alone. Energy tariffs, maintenance, battery lifetime, residual value, planning efficiency and subsidies together determine the true business case. This approach makes investment decisions calmer and less speculative.

6. Organise the transition as a process, not a single project

Working with short learning and evaluation cycles prevents uncertainties from accumulating. By running pilots on predictable routes, regularly validating assumptions and applying iterative improvements, the transition adapts to reality instead of colliding with unexpected challenges.

The common thread is clear. You do not need to know everything to get started. What you do need is an approach that makes uncertainty manageable.

What clarity delivers: calm, confidence and momentum

When companies begin with insight and a structured approach, clarity emerges and with it a sense of calm. They see which routes can already be electrified and which choices will have the greatest impact. Operational surprises decrease because energy consumption and charging moments become predictable. Teams work from a shared understanding, which increases support and reduces internal debate. Investments feel less like a leap into the unknown because costs and risks are assessed in context. And by organising the transition as a learning process, confidence grows with each step.

Clarity not only makes the transition feasible, but also scalable, and calm creates the space for progress.

Curious to know which first steps make the most sense for your fleet? We are happy to explore this with you.